State estimated tax safe harbors for individuals: 50-state matrix

Figures are for tax year 2026 (estimates paid April 2026 to January 2027) unless a line says 2025. Where a state had not published 2026 material when this Guide was checked (25 September 2026), the row says which year its source covers. A short section at the end covers 2025 returns, which are still being filed on extension until 15 October 2026.

Scope

• Covers: state estimated income tax for individuals (residents, and nonresidents with state-source income where the state says so): when estimates are required, the current-year and prior-year safe harbors, installment dates and shares, farmer and fisher rules, and how the underpayment penalty or interest is charged.
• Does not cover: corporate estimates, pass-through entity (PTE) elective tax estimates, city or county income taxes (for example New York City and Yonkers tax is covered inside the New York State rule, but Ohio school district and municipal taxes are not), and withholding deposits. For PTE estimates use us-pte-state-matrix; for the New York corporate Mandatory First Installment use ny-corporate-franchise-article-9a.
• Status labels: a cell that says check could not be confirmed on an official page when this Guide was written. Confirm it on the state's current estimated tax form before relying on it.
• Each state's rules are separate from the federal rules and from each other. Meeting the federal safe harbor does not meet any state safe harbor, and a state safe harbor is measured on that state's tax.

Ask the client first

• Which states will tax the client for 2026: state of residence, any part-year move, and any state where they earn wages, business or rental income?
• Last year's (2025) return for each state: the total tax, the state AGI (or federal AGI, depending on the state), and whether it covered a full 12 months. Several prior-year safe harbors are lost if the prior return was short, was not filed, or showed no liability.
• A projection of 2026 income and tax for each state. Is 2026 state AGI likely to reach $1,000,000 in California ($500,000 married/RDP filing separately)? Then the prior-year method is not available there.
• Withholding already taken or expected, and any PTE tax credit the state lets the client count as a payment.
• Is at least two-thirds of gross income from farming or fishing (2025 or 2026)? Most states then allow one payment by 15 January 2027 or a filed-and-paid return by 1 March 2027.
• Payments already made for 2026, with dates. Penalties are figured per installment, so a late first payment is not cured by a large later one.
• Does income arrive unevenly (a big gain or bonus late in the year)? The annualized income method may cut early installments.

The method, step by step

1. List the states. Use the matrix below for each state that will tax the client. A state with no broad personal income tax needs no individual estimates (see "States with no individual estimated income tax").
2. Test whether estimates are required. Compare the expected state tax after withholding and credits with the state's threshold. Read the comparator exactly: "more than $400" (New Jersey) is not met at $400; "at least $500" (California) is met at $500.
3. Work out the required annual payment. Take the lesser of the current-year percentage of 2026 tax and the prior-year percentage of 2025 tax. Apply any high-income rule (usually 110% when prior-year AGI was more than $150,000). Drop the prior-year option where the state bars it: California at 2026 California AGI of $1,000,000 or more, or anywhere the prior return was not a full 12-month return.
4. Split it into installments using the state's own shares and dates. Most states use four equal installments. California uses 30%, 40%, nothing, 30%. Several states use different dates (Delaware and Iowa 30 April, Virginia 1 May, Hawaii the 20th).
5. Apply the special rules. Farmers and fishers, a filed-and-paid return in place of the January installment, the annualized income method, and any "no penalty if the balance is under $X" rule.
6. Record the penalty method so a shortfall can be priced: most states charge interest-style penalties per installment and per day.
7. Recheck mid-year. If income changes, recompute the remaining installments. An earlier shortfall still carries its own penalty.

Federal baseline for 2026 (for comparison only)

States are free to set their own rules. The federal rules are the pattern most states copy, so start here. IRS Publication 505

• Estimates are generally required if the client expects to owe at least $1,000 for 2026 after withholding and credits, and withholding and credits will be less than the smaller of 90% of the 2026 tax or 100% of the 2025 tax. The 2025 return must have covered 12 months. Pub. 505
• Use 110% instead of 100% if 2025 AGI was more than $150,000 ($75,000 married filing separately). This does not apply if at least two-thirds of gross income for 2025 or 2026 is from farming or fishing. Pub. 505
• Due dates: 15 April, 15 June, 15 September 2026 and 15 January 2027. Filing the 2026 return by 31 January 2027 and paying in full replaces the January payment. Pub. 505
• Farmers and fishers: 66 2/3% instead of 90%, one payment by 15 January 2027, or file and pay by 1 March 2027. Pub. 505
• The penalty is figured at the federal underpayment interest rate: 7% for the first, third and fourth quarters of 2026 and 6% for the second quarter. IRS quarterly interest rates

The 2026 state matrix

Read each row with its source. "Prior year" means the 2025 tax for 2026 estimates. "MFS" is married filing separately. "Standard" means 25% of the required annual payment on each of 15 April, 15 June, 15 September 2026 and 15 January 2027. Dates roll to the next business day when they fall on a weekend or holiday. Where a row gives a penalty rate from a 2025 form, the 2026 rate may differ.

State	Estimates required when (2026)	Current-year %	Prior-year % and conditions	Installments and due dates	Farmers and fishers	Penalty or interest	Source
AL	Expect to owe at least $500 after withholding and credits	90%	100% (12-month 2025 return); 110% if 2025 Alabama AGI more than $150,000 ($75,000 MFS)	Standard	2/3 from farming: pay by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027; 66 2/3% on Form 2210AL	Form 2210AL (farmer computation uses 7% a year; regular rate: check); penalties apply to underpayments of at least $500	40ES; 2210AL
AR	Estimated tax of $1,000 or more after withholding and credits (the 2026 AR1000ES also says "more than" $1,000; at exactly $1,000, check)	90%	100% of prior-year liability (penalty is computed on the lesser of the two years); no 110% rule	Standard	2/3 from farming: pay by the 15th day of the 2nd month after year end, or file and pay by the 15th day of the 3rd month	10% a year, per day, per quarter (AR2210); no penalty if tax on the return is less than $1,000, or no liability in a 12-month prior year as a full-year resident	AR1000ES; AR2210
AZ	Required only if Arizona gross income exceeds $75,000 ($150,000 joint) in 2026 and exceeded it in 2025; others may pay voluntarily	90%	100% of prior-year tax; 110% rule: check (statute says 100%)	Federal due dates (check the 2026 Form 140ES)	check	Interest-based penalty (federal short-term rate plus 3 points), capped at 10% of the unpaid amount (Form 221); none if tax due on the return is less than $1,000	A.R.S. 43-581; A.R.S. 42-1125
CA	At least $500 ($250 MFS) after withholding and credits	90%	100%; 110% if 2025 CA AGI more than $150,000 ($75,000 MFS); no prior-year option if 2026 CA AGI is $1,000,000 or more ($500,000 MFS)	30% 15 Apr, 40% 15 Jun, none 15 Sep 2026, 30% 15 Jan 2027; file and pay by 31 Jan 2027 replaces the 4th	2/3 of 2025 or 2026 gross income: 66 2/3%; pay by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027; 110% rule does not apply	Form 5805; estimate penalty rate 7% (1 Jul to 31 Dec 2026)	540-ES; FTB rates
CO	Expect to owe more than $1,000 of net Colorado tax after withholding and credits	70%	100% (12-month prior year, return filed) if prior-year federal AGI $150,000 or less ($75,000 MFS); otherwise 110%	Standard; file and pay by 31 January: no 4th-installment penalty	2/3 from farming or fishing: file and pay by 1 March, or one payment by 15 January of 50% of current-year tax	DR 0204: 12% (through 31 Dec 2025) and 11% (from 1 Jan 2026) on the 2025 form; 2026 rates: check	DR 0104EP; DR 0204
CT	Tax after withholding and PE Tax Credit of $1,000 or more, and withholding below the required payment	90% (each installment 22.5% of 2026 tax)	100% if a 12-month 2025 return was filed; no 110% rule; nonresidents with no 2025 CT-source income must use 90%	Standard; file and pay by 31 Jan 2027: no interest on the 4th	Farmers and fishermen: 66 2/3%; file and pay by 1 Mar 2027: no interest	Interest 1% a month or part month, to the earlier of 15 Apr 2027 or payment (CT-2210)	CT-1040ES
DC	Expect to owe $100 or more (web page and D-2210 say "more than $100"; at exactly $100, check)	90%	110% of 2025 tax for everyone (no 100% option); full-year DC resident in 2025	Standard	check (no rule found)	Interest at 10% a year compounded daily (Form D-2210); none if the balance due is under $100	D-40ES; D-2210
DE	Tax after withholding and credits "can reasonably be expected to exceed $800"	90%	100%; 110% if prior-year federal AGI in excess of $150,000 ($75,000 MFS); none needed if no liability in a 12-month prior year	Equal installments 30 Apr, 15 Jun, 15 Sep 2026, 15 Jan 2027	2/3 from farming or fishing: 66 2/3%; declaration and payment by 15 Jan 2027 and file by 30 Apr 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	1.5% a month or part month on each underpaid installment	PIT-EST
GA	Gross income expected to exceed exemptions plus deductions plus $1,000 of income not subject to withholding	70%	100% if the prior return covered 12 months; no 110% rule	15 Apr, 15 Jun, 15 Sep 2026, 15 Jan 2027 (fewer if first required later)	2/3 from farming or fishing: file and pay by 1 Mar 2027; 66 2/3% on Form 500 UET	9% a year of the underpayment (Form 500 UET)	500-ES; 500 UET; rates
HI	Expect to owe at least $500 after withholding and credits	60%	100% (12-month prior-year return); no 110% rule found	25% each 20 Apr, 20 Jun, 20 Sep 2026, 20 Jan 2027; file and pay by 31 January: no January penalty (2025 wording; check for 2027)	2/3 from farming or fishing: no penalty if the return is filed and tax paid by 1 March	2/3 of 1% a month or part month (Form N-210)	N-11 instructions; N-210
IA	2026 onward: Iowa tax of $1,000 or more from income not subject to withholding (was $200 for 2025)	90%	100% (12-month prior year); 110% if prior-year federal AGI plus Iowa adjustments exceeded $150,000 ($75,000 MFS)	25% each 30 Apr, 30 Jun, 30 Sep 2026, 31 Jan 2027	2/3 from farming or commercial fishing: one payment by 15 Jan 2027 and file by 30 Apr 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027; 66.7% on IA 2210F	10% a year, per day (IA 2210)	IDR; IA 1040ES; IA 2210
ID	check	check	check	check	check	check	Form 51 (Idaho State Tax Commission); no page could be fetched
IL	Tax after Illinois withholding, pass-through withholding and credits expected to exceed $1,000	90%	100% of last year's tax; no 110% rule on the forms; no penalty if no 2025 return was required or 2025 tax was zero; people 65 or older permanently living in a nursing home are exempt	Standard	Farmers (2/3 of federal gross income from farming) are exempt; no fisher rule	Late-payment penalty: 2% if 1 to 30 days late, 10% if more than 30 days (IL-2210); interest is separate	IL-1040-ES; IL-2210; Pub. 103
IN	Unpaid state plus county tax of $1,000 or more (the bulletin's penalty section says "exceed"; at exactly $1,000, check)	90%	100%; 110% if federal AGI more than $150,000 ($75,000 MFS); not for farmers or fishers	Standard; file and pay by 31 January: no January penalty	2/3 from farming or fishing: no penalty if the return is filed and tax paid by 1 March	Flat 10% of the underpayment per installment (Schedule IT-2210)	Bulletin #3
KS	Expect to owe at least $500 after withholding and credits	90%	100% if a prior-year return showing a liability was filed; no 110% rule in the statute; none required if prior-year tax was under $200	Standard; file and pay by 31 January replaces January	2/3 of estimated gross income from farming or fishing: 66 2/3%; pay by 15 January, or file and pay by 1 March	Rate of K.S.A. 79-2968 interest (federal underpayment rate plus 1 point), to 15 April; numeric 2026 rate: check (Form K-210)	K.S.A. 79-32,101; 79-32,102; 79-32,103; 79-32,107
KY	Income of more than $5,000 from which no Kentucky tax will be withheld, and estimated tax after withholding and credits more than $500 (the 740-ES says "at least $500" in one place and "$500 or less, no payment" in another; at exactly $500, check)	90%	100%; 110% if 2025 KY AGI more than $150,000 ($75,000 MFS); not for farmers; none needed if no KY liability for a 12-month 2025	15 Apr, 15 Jun, 15 Sep 2026, 15 Jan 2027	2/3 of 2025 or 2026 gross income: 66 2/3%; pay by 15 Jan 2027 or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Rate under KRS 131.183 (Form 2210-K): 9% on tax unpaid in 2026	740-ES; 2026 rate
LA	Tax after credits and withholding expected to exceed $1,000 (single) or $2,000 (joint); page dated before the 2025 reform: check for 2026	90%	100% of the prior 12-month year's tax (the same page also says 90%: check); no 110% rule	Standard; file and pay by 31 January replaces January	2/3 from farming or fishing: 66.66%; pay by 15 January, or file and pay by 1 March	12% a year on the underpayment (R-210R)	LDR
MA	check	check	check	check	check	check	Form 1-ES (Massachusetts DOR); no page could be fetched
MD	Tax expected to be more than $500 over Maryland withholding (and a return is required)	90%	110% of last year's tax for everyone (no income trigger)	At least 1/4 by 15 Apr, then 15 Jun, 15 Sep 2026, 15 Jan 2027; file and pay by 31 Jan 2027 replaces the 4th	2/3 from farming or fishing: declaration and full payment by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Interest (Form 502UP); none if less than $500 tax on income not subject to withholding	PV worksheet; 2025 booklet
ME	$1,000 or more after withholding and credits, and prior-year tax of $1,000 or more	90%	100% (12-month prior year); no 110% rule; not usable for "unusual event" income ($500,000 or more above the same period last year), which is paid at 90%	Standard; file and pay by 31 January: no 4th-installment penalty	2/3 of AGI from farming or fishing: 66 2/3%; one payment by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Penalty at the 36 M.R.S. §186 rate: 9% for 2026 (Form 2210ME)	1040ES-ME; 36 M.R.S. §5228; MRS interest rates
MI	check	check	check	check	check	check	Form MI-1040ES (Michigan Treasury); no page could be fetched
MN	No addition to tax if tax after credits is less than $500	90%	100% (12-month prior year with a liability); 110% if prior-year AGI exceeds $150,000 (MFS figure: check)	Standard; file and pay by 31 January: no 4th-installment addition	Federal farmer or fisher test: 66 2/3%; one installment 15 January; the 31 January rule becomes 1 March	Addition at the prime-based rate of Minn. Stat. 270C.40 (Schedule M15); 2026 rate: check	Minn. Stat. 289A.25
MO	Declaration if estimated tax is $100.00 or more; no penalty if the balance due is less than $500	90%	100% (12-month prior year with a liability); no 110% rule	Standard; file and pay by 31 January counts as paid 15 January	Farmers (2/3 of Missouri gross income): 66 2/3%; pay by 15 January, or file and pay by 1 March	Interest-rate addition (MO-2210): 7% for days in 2026	MO-1040ES; MO-2210
MS	Tax liability exceeds $200 and less than 80% is covered by withholding	80%	100% of prior-year tax; no 110% rule; if prior-year tax was zero, the full current-year amount applies	Standard	2/3 from farming or fishing: pay by 15 January, or file and pay by 1 March	Interest of 1/2% a month (Form 80-320)	DOR FAQ; 80-320
MT	Statute: none required if liability after credits and withholding is less than $500; also none if no liability in a 12-month prior year (US citizen or resident all year), or in the year of and the year after retiring at 62 or older or becoming disabled	90%	100% (12-month prior year, return filed); no 110% rule	Standard; file and pay by 31 January: no interest on the 4th	Farmers or ranchers (66 2/3% of federal gross income) are exempt; no fisher rule	Interest (Form EST-I) at 7% for 2026	MCA 15-30-2512; DOR rates
NC	Tax due after withholding and credits of $1,000 or more	90%	100% (12-month prior year); no 110% rule on the forms	Standard; file and pay by 31 Jan 2027 replaces January	2/3 from farming or commercial fishing: 66 2/3%; pay by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Interest (Form D-422): 7% a year on the 2025 form; 2026 rate: check; none if no prior-year liability	NCDOR; D-422
ND	All of: federal estimates required; 2025 net tax equal to or more than $1,000; 2026 balance after ND withholding equal to or more than $1,000	90%	100%; no 110% rule; not available if the client moved in during 2025 with no earlier ND income	Standard	Federal farmers: 66 2/3%; pay in full by 15 Jan 2027	Interest at 12% a year to the earlier of payment or the return due date	ND-1ES
NE	Tax after credits expected to exceed withholding by $500 or more	90%	100% (12-month prior year); 110% if prior-year federal AGI more than $150,000 ($75,000 MFS); not for farmers or fishers	Standard; file and pay by 31 January covers the January installment	2/3 of 2025 or 2026 gross income from farming, ranching or fishing: 66 2/3%; pay by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Form 2210N: 8% a year on the 2025 form; 2026 rate: check	1040N-ES; 2210N
NJ	Tax after credits more than $400	80%	100% if the prior return covered 12 months with a tax obligation; no 110% rule; no interest if no prior-year obligation	Standard; file and pay by 15 Feb 2027 replaces January	2/3 of estimated income from farming: pay in full by 15 Jan 2027; 66 2/3% test	Interest at prime plus 3%, from each due date to payment, but only up to 15 April (NJ-2210)	NJ-1040-ES; GIT-8
NM	Tax after credits and withholding of $1,000 or more (the web page says "more than"; at exactly $1,000, check)	90%	100% if a full 12-month NM return was filed; no 110% rule found	Standard; file and pay by 31 January: no 4th-installment penalty	2/3 from farming or ranching: one payment by 15 January, or file and pay by 1 March	Interest-style penalty at the federal individual underpayment rate: 7% (1 Jul to 31 Dec 2026); first-year residents exempt	TRD; RPD-41272
NY	At least $300 of NYS, NYC or Yonkers tax (any MCTMT due also requires estimates)	90%	100% of 2025 tax; 110% if 2025 NYAGI more than $150,000 ($75,000 MFS); needs a full 12-month 2025 return; not for farmers	Standard; file and pay by 31 Jan 2027 replaces January	2/3 of 2025 or 2026 federal gross income: pay 66 2/3% by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Federal short-term rate plus 5.5 points, not less than 7.5% (IT-2105.9); none if tax due after withholding is less than $300	IT-2105-I; IT-2105.9-I
OH	Ohio tax after credits, less withholding, more than $500	90%	100% of prior-year tax on a timely filed prior-year return; no 110% rule	25% each (cumulative 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of the required amount) by 15 Apr, 15 Jun, 15 Sep 2026, 15 Jan 2027	2/3 from farming or fishing: file and pay by 1 March (check the 2026 form)	Interest penalty (IT/SD 2210) at the statutory rate: 7% for 2026	2026 instructions; IT/SD 2210
OK	Tax expected to exceed withholding by $500 or more	70%	100% (12-month prior year); no 110% rule	Standard	Farmers (2/3 of gross income, current or prior year) need not make estimates	Interest at 20% a year (Form OW-8-P); none if tax after credits is less than $1,000	OW-8-ES; OW-8-P
OR	Expect to owe $1,000 or more after all credits and withholding	90%	100% of prior-year tax after credits; no 110% rule; the prior return must not be a short-year return	Standard	2/3 from farming or commercial fishing: no estimates required	Underpayment interest (Form OR-10): 8% for 2026	OR-ESTIMATE; OR-10
PA	Expect to owe at least $430 ($14,000 of income not subject to withholding) after withholding and credits	90%	100% of 2025 PA-40 net taxable income times the 2026 rate (3.07%); only if a full-year 2025 PA-40 was filed	Standard if first required before 1 Apr; fewer, larger if later	2/3 from farming: pay by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Interest-style penalty per day on each underpayment, not beyond the return due date (REV-1630)	REV-413
RI	Tax expected to be $250 or more over allowable credits	check	check (the regulation says federal exceptions "may be followed")	check	check	check (Form RI-2210)	280-RICR-20-55-1
SC	Expect to owe $100 or more with the SC1040	90%	100% (12-month prior year, return filed); 110% if prior-year AGI more than $150,000 ($75,000 MFS)	Standard; file and pay by 1 February replaces January	2/3 from farming or commercial fishing: pay by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	SC2210: 7% a year on the 2025 form; 2026 rate: check. 2026 tax changes (Act 110): recheck estimates	SC1040ES; SC2210
UT	No estimated tax requirement; voluntary prepayments allowed	n/a	n/a (90%/100% apply only to the extension prepayment)	None	n/a	No estimated tax penalty; extension prepayment penalty 2% of the unpaid tax per month of the extension period if the extension test is not met	Utah extensions; TC-40 instructions
VA	Tax after withholding and credits expected to be more than $1,000 (2026 onward)	90% (actual or annualized)	100% of prior-year tax (full-year prior return with a liability), or prior-year income at 2026 rates; no 110% rule; no addition if total underpayments are $1,000 or less	25% each 1 May, 15 Jun, 15 Sep 2026, 15 Jan 2027; file and pay by 1 Mar 2027 replaces January	2/3 from farming, fishing or merchant seaman: 66 2/3%; one payment by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Addition to tax, Form 760C (760F for farmers)	760ES
VT	No dollar threshold stated; no penalty if tax on the return less withholding is less than $500	90%	100% of prior-year tax; no 110% rule; no penalty if a 12-month prior year had no liability	Standard	2/3 of income from farming or fishing: no estimates required	Interest plus a 1% a month penalty (Form IN-152)	IN-114; IN-152; 32 V.S.A. §5855
WI	Expect to owe at least $500 after withholding and credits	90%	100% (12-month prior year); no 110% rule for individuals	Standard; file and pay by 31 Jan 2027 counts as the 4th, if nothing was owed for earlier installments	2/3 of 2025 or 2026 gross income from farming or fishing: pay by 15 Jan 2027, or file and pay by 1 Mar 2027	Interest at 12% a year (Schedule U)	1-ES; Schedule U; DOR FAQ
WV	Estimated tax less WV withholding of at least $600, unless that liability is less than ten percent of the estimated tax	90%	100% (12-month prior year); no 110% rule; not usable if prior-year tax was zero and current tax is over $5,000	Standard; file and pay by 31 January (older form) or 1 February (2025 booklet): check	2/3 from farming: 66 2/3%; one payment 15 January, or file and pay by 1 March	Interest-rate penalty (Form IT-210); the rate is set every six months, and the 2025 booklet gives 11.5% for 2026	IT-140ESI; 2025 IT-140 booklet

Patterns worth knowing

• Lower current-year percentages: Georgia, Colorado and Oklahoma 70%; New Jersey and Mississippi 80%; Hawaii 60%. Everyone else in the matrix uses 90% where confirmed.
• 110% for everyone, not just high earners: Maryland and the District of Columbia. 110% above $150,000 ($75,000 MFS): California, New York, Alabama, Delaware (federal AGI), Indiana (federal AGI), Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Carolina, Colorado and Minnesota. No 110% rule found: most other states, including New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Georgia.
• Prior-year route barred: California when 2026 California AGI is $1,000,000 or more ($500,000 MFS); Maine for "unusual event" income.
• Different dates: Delaware 30 April; Virginia 1 May; Hawaii the 20th of April, June, September and January; Iowa 30 April, 30 June, 30 September and 31 January. California has no September installment.
• No estimates at all: Utah (voluntary prepayments only).

States with no individual estimated income tax

• Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming: no broad personal income tax, so no individual estimated income tax.
• New Hampshire: the Interest and Dividends Tax is reported as repealed for taxable periods beginning after 31 December 2024, with no estimates due for 2025 or later. The Department of Revenue Administration pages could not be fetched: check before telling a client to stop.
• Washington: no personal income tax. The capital gains tax needs no quarterly payments ("Quarterly payments are not required"). Tax is due by 15 April, and from tax year 2026 it may be prepaid up to six months early. Paying less than 80% of the tax due by the deadline brings a substantial underpayment penalty. WA capital gains FAQ; WA capital gains tax

Boundary and exception table

Situation	Rule	Source
New Jersey tax after credits exactly $400	No estimates: required only if tax is more than $400	NJ-1040-ES
California tax after withholding exactly $500 (single)	Estimates required: the test is at least $500	540-ES
Delaware tax after withholding exactly $800	No declaration: required only if it can be expected to exceed $800	PIT-EST
Virginia 2026 tax after withholding exactly $1,000	No estimates: "$1,000 or less" is exempt	760ES
California: 2026 CA AGI exactly $1,000,000 (not MFS)	Prior-year method barred: the bar applies at "equal to or greater than" $1,000,000	540-ES
California: 2025 CA AGI exactly $150,000	100% of 2025 tax, not 110%: the 110% rule needs more than $150,000	540-ES
Prior-year return covered fewer than 12 months (NY, CT, GA, NJ, PA and most others)	The prior-year option is not available; use the current-year percentage	IT-2105-I; 500 UET
Maryland client with 2025 AGI under $150,000	Still 110% of last year's tax for the prior-year route; Maryland has no income trigger	2025 booklet
Farmer in California, New York or Kentucky with high prior-year AGI	The 110% rule does not apply to farmers; use 66 2/3% or 100%	540-ES; 740-ES

Worked cases

These are illustrations with invented numbers. Each uses only the rules in the matrix.

Case 1: California 30/40/0/30 (2026). 2025 California tax $42,000; 2025 California AGI $260,000; expected 2026 California AGI $400,000 and 2026 California tax $48,000; no withholding. 2025 AGI is more than $150,000, so the prior-year figure is 110% × $42,000 = $46,200. 2026 AGI is under $1,000,000, so the prior-year route is open. 90% × $48,000 = $43,200. The required annual payment is the lesser, $43,200. Installments: 30% = $12,960 by 15 April 2026; 40% = $17,280 by 15 June 2026; nothing on 15 September 2026; 30% = $12,960 by 15 January 2027. Paying the federal-style 25% ($10,800) in April and June leaves California short by 15 June: $21,600 paid against $30,240 due. 540-ES

Case 2: California at $1,000,000 (2026). 2025 California tax $60,000; expected 2026 California AGI $1,200,000 (single) and 2026 tax $110,000. The prior-year route is barred, so the required annual payment is 90% × $110,000 = $99,000: $29,700 by 15 April 2026, $39,600 by 15 June 2026, nothing in September, $29,700 by 15 January 2027. 540-ES

Case 3: New Jersey 80% (2026). Expected 2026 New Jersey tax $2,000 after credits, no withholding; 2025 was a full-year return with tax of $1,500. Tax is more than $400, so estimates are due. Lesser of 80% × $2,000 = $1,600 and 100% × $1,500 = $1,500: $1,500, paid as four installments of $375. Interest on any shortfall runs only up to 15 April. GIT-8

Case 4: Georgia 70% (2026). Expected 2026 Georgia tax $10,000; 2025 Georgia tax $9,000 on a 12-month return. Lesser of 70% × $10,000 = $7,000 and 100% × $9,000 = $9,000: $7,000, or $1,750 on each of the four dates. 500 UET

Case 5: Maryland 110% for everyone (2026). 2025 Maryland tax $8,000 on AGI of $90,000; 2026 tax expected to rise. Each quarterly payment must be at least 1/4 × 110% × $8,000 = $2,200 to be safe on the prior-year route, even though AGI is well under $150,000. The other route is quarterly payments that equal 90% of the 2026 tax. 2025 booklet

When to refuse or refer

• Any state cell marked check: do not give a final number until it is confirmed on the state's current form.
• Part-year residents and nonresidents: several states apply different thresholds or bar the prior-year route (for example Connecticut makes a nonresident with no 2025 Connecticut-source income use 90% of the 2026 tax). Work from that state's own instructions.
• Penalty computations that need the annualized income method, a waiver (casualty, disaster, retirement after 62, disability) or a fiscal year: refer to the state's penalty form and instructions.
• Clients who count a PTE tax credit or a partnership's estimated payments toward their own estimates: check that the state allows it (Connecticut and New York do; not every state does) and refer to us-pte-state-matrix.
• Local income taxes (Ohio school districts and cities, Pennsylvania local earned income tax, Maryland county tax, Indiana county tax, Michigan cities) have their own rules unless the state form says the local tax is included.

Filing and payment

• Pay each state separately, on that state's voucher or online system; a federal payment never counts for a state.
• If a due date falls on a weekend or legal holiday, most states move it to the next business day.
• Several states require electronic payment above set amounts (for example California and Pennsylvania). Check the state's estimated tax form.
• Penalties are figured per installment. A later catch-up payment stops the clock for that installment but does not erase the earlier penalty.

2025 returns (filed now, extended returns due 15 October 2026)

• The underpayment penalty on a 2025 return is figured with the 2025 state penalty form, against the 2024 tax for the prior-year route.
• Virginia: for 2025 there is no addition to tax if every payment was on time and the client owes $150 or less with the 2025 return. The more-than-$1,000 rule starts in 2026. 2025 Form 760 instructions
• Pennsylvania: for 2025 the estimated tax thresholds were $11,000 of income and $338 of tax. 2025 REV-413
• New York: the 2025 penalty rate was 9.5% from 15 April 2025 through 15 April 2026. IT-2105.9-I
• California's estimate penalty rate was 7% from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026 and 8% from 1 January to 30 June 2025. FTB rates
• Other states: use the matrix rules but take the percentages and dates from the state's 2025 penalty form, since a few states changed thresholds for 2026.

Completion checklist

• Every state that will tax the client for 2026 is listed, including part-year and nonresident states.
• Threshold tested with the exact comparator (more than / at least / or more).
• Required annual payment = the lesser of the current-year and prior-year figures, with 110% or other high-income rules, and the California $1,000,000 bar, applied.
• Prior-year route used only where the prior return was a full 12 months (and, where required, showed a liability).
• Installments scheduled on each state's own dates and shares (California 30/40/0/30; Delaware 30 April; Virginia 1 May).
• Farmer and fisher status tested (two-thirds of gross income).
• Any cell marked check confirmed on the state's current form.
• Penalty exposure on missed installments noted, with the state's penalty form.